Research
Peer-Reviewed Articles
Daniel Mattingly, Trevor Incerti, Changwook Ju, Colin Moreshead, Seiki Tanaka, and Hikaru Yamagishi. Conditionally accepted. “Chinese State Media Persuades a Global Audience That the “China Model” is Superior: Evidence from a 19-Country Experiment.” American Journal of Political Science. Appendix | R Replication Package | Featured in The Economist, De Groene Amsterdammer, and Big Data China
Many are skeptical of the appeal of authoritarian political systems. We argue that global audiences will embrace authoritarian models when they believe that autocracies can meet governance challenges better than democracies. We collect comprehensive data on the external messaging of the Chinese and American governments. We then conduct a randomized experiment in 19 countries across 6 continents exposing global citizens to real messages from the Chinese and American governments’ external media arms. We find that exposure to a representative set of Chinese messages strengthens perceptions that the Chinese Communist Party delivers growth, stability, and competent leadership. It also moves the average respondent from slightly preferring the American model to slightly preferring the Chinese model. In head-to-head matchups, messages from the U.S. government are less persuasive. Our findings show how autocracies build global support by selling growth and competence, with important implications for democratic resilience.
Changwook Ju and Joshua Byun. Forthcoming. “Under No Circumstances? What the Chinese Really Think about the Wartime Use of Nuclear Weapons.” International Studies Quarterly. Appendix | R Replication Package
The idea of using nuclear weapons to kill noncombatants is said to evoke strong moral opprobrium among millions of individuals across the globe, such that national leaders should be constrained from using the weapons even when such a decision would be strategically sensible. Classical area scholarship and recent survey evidence suggest that this “nuclear taboo” is strong among the Chinese public, buttressed by culturally grounded preferences for moderation in warfare. Drawing on findings in cultural sociology and political behavior, we argue that previous studies mislead on the extent to which ordinary Chinese citizens might oppose the use of nuclear weapons in a real military clash, primarily due to a failure to distinguish baseline preferences for nuclear non-use from the willingness to approve of governmental decisions to use these weapons. Results from an original survey experiment fielded in mainland China show that many individuals who personally dislike the idea of using nuclear weapons are nonetheless willing to support their leaders’ decision to do so. Our study contributes new and systematic knowledge about Chinese nuclear attitudes and highlights the value of harnessing interdisciplinary insights to inform the research agenda on the nuclear taboo.
Changwook Ju. 2023. “Determinants of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence: A Meta-Reanalysis Distinguishing Two Classes of Zero Observations.” International Studies Quarterly 67 (3): 1–17. Appendix | R Replication Package | Featured as the lead article
Existing databases on conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) feature a disproportionate number of “zero” observations, which conflate a true absence of CRSV with an unknown presence of CRSV. Empirical studies model such zeros as solely indicating a lack of CRSV, thereby obscuring what needs to be known about its determinants and patterns. In this article, I present a comprehensive meta-reanalysis of quantitative CRSV studies that have disregarded the two-fold nature of excessive zeros in their data. To redress this neglect, I differentiate the two types of zeros probabilistically and then estimate the prevalence of CRSV conditional on the statistical partitioning of its two zero types. My meta-reanalysis refines previous findings, restoring confidence in intuitive theoretical expectations and resolving inconclusive and unexpected results in the field. It also dispels potential misconceptions by providing alternative evidence and explanations. Overall, distinguishing the two classes of zeros in estimation yields more informed results, making substantial contributions to scholarly understanding of CRSV while avoiding spurious confirmations and disconfirmations.
Changwook Ju. 2022. “Why Do Military Officers Condone Sexual Violence? A General Theory of Commander Tolerance.” International Studies Review 24 (3): 1–31. AI Package
Why do commanders tolerate sexual violence by their subordinates? Commander tolerance allows military sexual violence (MSV) to persist in times of peace, war, and post-conflict peacekeeping. However, most of the previous studies on MSV have focused on perpetrators’ criminal motives while neglecting the role of commander tolerance. In this article, I offer a tripartite general theory of commander tolerance that systematically weaves together the diverse conditions under which commanders tolerate MSV at the micro, meso, and macro levels of social scientific inquiry. Toward this end, I build on the conventional principal–agent model of MSV but crucially depart from its core constructs to create a dynamic multi-commander theoretical framework. The theory represents the most rigorous explanation of commander tolerance to date and offers practical implications for military justice systems in terms of MSV. Placing commander tolerance at the center of studies on military violence opens an array of new avenues for research.
Book Chapters
Changwook Ju. 2023. “How Women Combatants Affect Wartime Rape: Distinct Effects in State and Rebel Forces.” In Women, Peace and Security Agenda in Military Operations, edited by Andrée-Anne Mélançon and Maximillian Thompson, 105–129. London: Howgate Publishing.
Book Reviews
Changwook Ju. 2022. “Review of Divided Armies: Inequality and Battlefield Performance in Modern War by Jason Lyall.” Cambridge Review of International Affairs 35 (1): 131–133.
Changwook Ju. 2019. “Review of American Grand Strategy and East Asian Security in the Twenty-First Century by David Kang.” Journal of East Asian Studies 19 (2): 267–268.
Working Papers
Conscription and Battlefield Effectiveness in the Modern Era
U.S. Battlefield Effectiveness in the Vietnam War
Military Performance in Modern Battles, 1939–2011: Introducing a New Dataset
Sexual Violence in Secessionist Conflicts (Under Review)
Gender Under Attack: Gender Relations and Rebel Sexual Violence (Under Review)
Coercive Recruitment and Combatant Socialization: Reanalyzing the Role of Child Soldiering on Conflict-Related Sexual Violence (Under Review)
How Domestic Politics Shapes International Soft Power Promotion: Evidence from East Asia (with Trevor Incerti, Dan Mattingly, Colin Moreshead, Seiki Tanaka, and Hikaru Yamagishi)
Playing the Hand You’re Dealt: The Implications of Sovereign Credit for War
Check the Assumptions: Economic Shocks, Rainfall Instruments, and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Research in Progress
Selling Japan: Does Political Messaging to Foreign Publics Increase Political and Economic Consumption? (with Trevor Incerti, Daniel Mattingly, Colin Moreshead, Seiki Tanaka, and Hikaru Yamagishi)
Gender Inequality and Women’s Participation in Rebellion (with Meredith Loken and Hilary Matfess)
Selected Online Publications
‘You Can’t Hack a Piece of Paper’: Jake Braun Talks U.S. Election Security, Chicago Policy Review, April 1, 2018.
In Their Own Words: North Korea’s Changing Motives in Nuclear Testing, Chicago Policy Review, January 11, 2018.
Creating Safe Cyberspace: Strategies for Deterring Cyberattacks, Chicago Policy Review, November 25, 2017.
‘All Countries Have a Stake’: Dr. Kennette Benedict Talks Nuclear Security and Global Responsibility, Chicago Policy Review, November 7, 2017.
Protecting Their Own? The Real Reasons States Build Border Walls, Chicago Policy Review, October 31, 2017.
Advancing the Study of Nuclear (Non)Proliferation, Chicago Policy Review, October 29, 2017.
The Future of U.S. Foreign Policy: An End to Liberal Internationalism?, Chicago Policy Review, October 17, 2017.
Why Do Former Rivals Form Non-Aggression Pacts?, Chicago Policy Review, October 11, 2017.
Nuclear Dynamics and Conflicting Effects of Foreign Policy Initiatives, Chicago Policy Review, September 26, 2017.
What Makes Military Dictators Transition Out of Dictatorships?, Chicago Policy Review, September 6, 2017.
When Does War Transpire? Unlikely War Onset Under Uncertainty, Chicago Policy Review, August 1, 2017.
Are Economic Elites Anti-Democratic? Why Economic Elites May Support Democratization, Chicago Policy Review, July 25, 2017.
Causes of War: When the Unknown Creates False Optimism, Chicago Policy Review, July 18, 2017.